Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
The 1979 Camp David Accords, long the cornerstone of Middle Eastern stability, are facing their most severe test in decades. A calculated campaign of political and economic pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is pushing the historic "cold peace" with Egypt to a potential breaking point, creating a volatile new dynamic across the region. At the heart of the escalating tension is a confluence of disputes over a multi-billion dollar gas deal, unsubstantiated claims of an Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula, and a fundamental disagreement over the future of Gaza.
The Gas Deal and Fabricated Crises
The most immediate flashpoint, as detailed by former Israeli Knesset member Ksenia Svetlova in the Financial Times, is Netanyahu's threat to derail a $35 billion gas deal with Egypt. This move, which Svetlova labels a "grave mistake," would undermine what she calls "Israel's most vital Arab partnership."
The official justification from Netanyahu's government is an alleged Egyptian violation of the peace treaty through an unsanctioned military deployment in Sinai. This claim, which Egypt vehemently denies, has been amplified by Netanyahu’s Likud party and media allies. Earlier this year, Israel's ambassador to the U.S. warned American Jewish organizations of an "obvious violation" in Sinai, promising a "very decisive" Israeli response.
However, these allegations have been systematically debunked. Svetlova notes that senior Israeli security officials later clarified that social media reports of an Egyptian troop surge were "incorrect and published by right-wing figures for political reasons."
This points to what Svetlova describes as a disturbing pattern of "fabricated" and "manufactured" crises designed to pressure Cairo into accepting policies it cannot possibly adopt. This campaign is intrinsically linked to the post-war planning for Gaza. With Netanyahu’s government offering vague slogans like "No Hamas, No Palestinian Authority," a policy vacuum has emerged, allowing extremist notions to take hold—chief among them, the expectation that Egypt might accept the "voluntary displacement" of Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai.
The pressure campaign has a direct American dimension. According to a report by Axios, Netanyahu presented U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio with a list of alleged Egyptian activities in Sinai, urging the Trump administration to compel Cairo to reduce its military presence.
Egypt’s response has been firm. An official presidential statement reiterated that its forces in Sinai are positioned to secure its borders against terrorism and smuggling, in full coordination with treaty partners. The statement reaffirmed Egypt's absolute rejection of any plan to displace Palestinians from their land.
A Shifting Regional Defense Posture
The tension between Egypt and Israel is not occurring in a vacuum. It comes as Netanyahu's government projects an image of military dominance, emboldened by successful operations targeting resistance figures and military leaders across six Arab nations. This aggressive posture has extended to unofficial threats against both Ankara and Cairo, prompting a significant recalibration of regional defense strategies.
In response, regional powers are forging new alliances:
* Turkey and Egypt: Once rivals, the two nations are now experiencing the best relations in their modern history, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The shared stance on the Israeli war in Gaza has deepened this cooperation, culminating in joint naval maneuvers dubbed "Sea of Friendship." These exercises signal the potential for a new regional security architecture, raising concerns in both Israel and Greece.
* Saudi Arabia and Pakistan: In a move described by observers as a "sudden and shocking geopolitical development," Saudi Arabia recently signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan, further indicating a regional shift away from reliance on traditional Western security guarantees.
The U.S. Role: A Partnership Under Strain
The Egypt-U.S. relationship, a decades-long strategic partnership, is undergoing a delicate recalibration under President Donald Trump's second term. While foundational elements like the $1.3 billion in annual military aid and the Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZ) trade agreement remain, clear points of friction have emerged.
President Trump’s recent Middle East tour notably excluded Egypt, signaling a potential shift in Washington's priorities. The most significant point of contention remains the U.S.-Israeli proposal to move Gazans to Sinai, a plan Egypt has unequivocally rejected. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has been resolute, stating, "Egypt will never allow its land to be an alternative to the Palestinian homeland."
Despite these tensions, diplomatic channels remain open. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Aty’s visit to Washington in August 2025 aimed to manage disagreements and reinforce cooperation on mutual interests in Sudan, Libya, and Syria. The relationship is not broken, but it is being fundamentally redefined as Egypt asserts greater strategic autonomy.
A Necessary Alliance at a Crossroads
The Egypt-Israel relationship in 2025 is governed by security necessity, not popular acceptance or strategic partnership. Decades after the peace treaty, cultural and popular normalization remains non-existent. Cairo's role as the primary mediator between Israel and Palestinian factions in Gaza is more critical than ever, especially following the attacks in Doha.
Netanyahu's high-risk strategy of leveraging fabricated claims and economic threats risks alienating Israel's most important regional partner.
As Egypt strengthens its alliances with other regional powers and balances its historic ties to the U.S. with growing partnerships in the East, it is clear that Cairo will not sacrifice its national sovereignty or its core positions on the Palestinian cause. The cold peace has survived many storms, but the current manufactured crisis is pushing it into dangerously uncharted waters.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.