Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Tomorrow, Lebanese voters will go to the polls in the first municipal elections in nine years. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reported on Thursday that three people were killed in Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon on Wednesday.
Despite daily Israeli airstrikes, which have killed at least 71 civilians since the ceasefire, the electoral process is on schedule for South Lebanon and Nabatiyeh governorates, according to Minister of Interior Ahmad al-Hajjar.
Yesterday, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called on voters to turn out on Saturday. Local authorities have been stepping up logistical and security arrangements on the ground ahead of Saturday’s vote. The distribution of ballot boxes to polling station heads and clerks is being carried out by the elections operations room at the Ministry of the Interior.
The U.S.-brokered ceasefire in February called for Israel to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon by January 26, but the deadline was extended to February 18 following Israel’s refusal to leave. The Lebanese government, and the UN, have complained to the US about the ceasefire violations, but Washington turns a blind-eye, preferring to hold the occupation-card as leverage while negotiating the disarming of Hezbollah.
On Wednesday, President Joseph Aoun and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met in Beirut and agreed that all weapons should be under the exclusive authority of the Lebanese state. The meeting focused on various Palestinian militias and residents who hold weapons in the 12 Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. They agreed that the militias and camps should be disarmed for peace and security.
Lebanon is undergoing significant political and military shifts concerning Hezbollah’s arsenal and influence. The group, long considered one of the most formidable non-state military forces in the region, has faced increasing pressure both domestically and internationally.
Following the prolonged conflict with Israel, Hezbollah’s military infrastructure has suffered substantial losses. Israeli airstrikes have targeted key weapons depots, rocket launchers, and military sites in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley.
The Lebanese government has made strides in disarming Hezbollah, with the Lebanese Army taking control of areas south of the Litani River. This marks the most significant breakthrough since the Taif Agreement of 1989. Hezbollah has reportedly shown willingness to negotiate the gradual handover of its remaining weapons, a move influenced by Israeli military pressure and U.S. diplomatic efforts.
Washington has urged Lebanon to continue its efforts in fully disarming Hezbollah, emphasizing that the process should extend beyond southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Syria has also taken steps to centralize power, leading to crackdowns on Palestinian factions that have historically aligned with Hezbollah. Iranian influence is gone from Syria following the ouster of Assad, and Syria will no longer be a weapons storage depot for Iran or Hezbollah.
Despite suffering losses, Hezbollah remains a powerful entity in Lebanon. The group has historically demonstrated resilience, adapting to political and military challenges. However, with increasing international scrutiny and domestic pressure, its future remains uncertain. The ongoing negotiations and military developments will likely determine whether Hezbollah retains its influence or transitions into a more politically focused organization.
Continuing Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon on weapons depots and command centers suggest Israel is actively working to weaken Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
Lebanon’s government is attempting to disarm Hezbollah, but the process is complicated by ongoing cease-fire violations and regional shifts. The country’s fragile economy and political landscape depend on reducing Hezbollah’s military influence, yet the group remains a dominant force.
The U. S. continues to monitor Hezbollah’s activities closely. Recent sanctions targeting Hezbollah’s financial networks highlight Washington’s commitment to disrupting the group’s funding sources.
In April, Hezbollah expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue with the Lebanese presidency regarding the future of its military arsenal, but only on the condition that Israel fully withdraws from occupied positions in southern Lebanon and ceases hostilities against the country.
The November ceasefire agreement, mediated by Washington, mandates the Lebanese Army to dismantle unauthorized military installations and confiscate all weapons south of the Litani River, 20 kilometers north of the Israeli border. Notably, Hezbollah is reportedly considering transferring heavy weaponry, including drones and anti-tank missiles, to the Lebanese Army in exchange for guarantees of national defense.
The issue of Hezbollah’s arsenal has long polarized Lebanon. Critics, including the Lebanese Forces Party, argue that the group’s unchecked arms drag the nation into regional conflicts and undermine state sovereignty. Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagas reiterated during a recent Beirut visit that Washington demands Hezbollah’s disarmament “as soon as possible,” insisting the Lebanese Army assume full security control.
President Aoun faces the daunting task of reconciling Hezbollah’s demands with international pressures. A Lebanese official close to the presidency emphasized that Aoun’s approach prioritizes dialogue over force, warning that coercive disarmament could ignite fresh conflict. Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi recently echoed calls for state monopoly over arms but cautioned that the process requires “time and diplomacy,” given Lebanon’s fragile recovery from decades of war.
Despite its overtures, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem struck a defiant tone, accusing Israel of daily violations and stressing that diplomacy has limits. “If Israel refuses to withdraw and Lebanon’s government fails to act, we will have no choice but to pursue other options,” he warned in a March speech.
The disarmament debate coincides with reports that Iran-backed Iraqi militias are also considering laying down arms to avoid escalation with the U.S. For Hezbollah, however, the path forward remains fraught. As Lebanon grapples with economic collapse and the specter of renewed conflict, the group’s calculus hinges on whether Israel retreats—and whether the state can fill the security vacuum.
With President Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reportedly mediating behind the scenes, the coming months will test whether Lebanon can transition from militia dominance to state authority—or whether the region’s tinderbox ignites once more.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist