Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
After weeks of destroying ships said to be carrying drugs from Venezuela, US President Donald Trump posted on social media the capture and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a daring US military operation in Caracas.
US Attorney General Pam Bondi announced Maduro has been indicted in New York on drugs and weapons charges. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Republican senator Maduro will stand trial in the US and that he anticipates no further military action.
According to the Venezuelan constitution, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez will assume leadership of the country. She mentioned the US attack has cost the lives of officials, military personnel and civilians across the country.
Trump had campaigned on a “America First” platform, and had long ridiculed the past Obama-Biden administration’s insistence of “regime change” operations in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen.
In my opinion, Trump may have a two-pronged strategy: China and OPEC.
Firstly, Trump may be seeking to hurt China economically. China, the world's no. 1 oil importer, is the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude, though Venezuelan supply accounts for only around 4% of its total crude imports.
China remained Venezuela's main export destination, taking about 80% of total shipments, or roughly 746,000 bpd. as of December 5, 2025. China has imported 1.72 million bpd of crude from Saudi Arabia, 21.1 percent of its total imports.
Iran ranks as the second largest crude exporter to China in 2025 as a whole, with 1.61 million bpd and 19.6 percent of China's total imports as of November 19, 2025.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia is considered the country with the biggest power in OPEC, serving as its de facto leader. Its influence stems primarily from its massive oil production capacity, large proven reserves, and significant spare capacity, which allows it to function as the traditional swing producer to balance the global market.
However, if the US can control the massive oil reserves in Venezuela, Trump could exert power in OPEC, effectively unseating Saudi Arabia as the power broker. Which could buy Trump leverage over Saudi Arabia’s signing of the Abraham Accords with Israel. Possibly, Trump could be the power which sets oil prices in the future.
In mid-December, speculation abounded concerning a possible attack on Venezuela, and the future of Maduro. The US forces had seized a Venezuelan oil tanker off the coast. Experts pointed to the shared interest in Venezuela oil reserves, the world’s largest proven reserves, between the US and China.
"Whoever comes to power, I can assure you, the first call will be Trump, but the second will be Xi Jinping," said Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado, a specialist in China–Latin America relations.
The US had been Venezuela’s largest customer prior to 2019, when Washington imposed substantial sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA in 2019 — having earlier blocked its access to US financial markets in 2017. Production and exports tumbled soon afterward.
Chevron revives output
In 2023 production begin to recover, with exports rising to 655,000 bpd in 2024 and reaching 921,000 bpd in November this year. The rebound was due to US oil giant, Chevron of Houston, TX.
Washington eased some restrictions on Venezuela, in the wake of Russia's military operations in Ukraine in 2022. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control granted Chevron special licenses to resume exports from its Venezuelan joint ventures. In October 2025, Chevron received fresh authorization to produce oil there.
"The recovery of oil production in Venezuela has happened because of Chevron," Francisco J. Monaldi, an energy policy specialist. Chevron now accounts for nearly a quarter of Venezuela's total output.
While Chevron expands, Chinese investment is limited to smaller-scale projects. China Concord Resources Corp has reportedly begun developing two oil fields, with an investment of about $1 billion (€850 million) planned to boost production to 60,000 bpd by the end of 2026.
Since 2016, Beijing's state-backed development lenders such as the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China have effectively shut their wallets by not issuing new loans to Caracas.
Restructurings and oil-for-loan deals have reduced much of Venezuela's roughly $60 billion debt to China.
Between the lack of new lending and scaled-back diplomacy, some experts saw signs that Beijing was not completely backing Maduro.
China had grown frustrated by 2011, when $8 billion in Chinese funds disappeared from the Sino-Venezuelan Investment Fund. Chinese authorities were disappointed and assumed the failure was due to corruption.
The US in Iraq
The US benefits from Iraq's oil both through direct imports and broader geopolitical and commercial advantages, though the benefits are complex and often indirect.
Iraq is one of the top five sources of US total petroleum imports, accounting for 4% of total petroleum imports in 2022. The U.S. continues to import a significant amount of Iraqi crude and refined petroleum.
US energy firms, such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, have secured valuable service contracts with the Iraqi government to develop its large oil fields, which offer some of the world's cheapest-to-produce oil. These contracts generate substantial profits for the American companies involved.
American companies, notably the oil field services corporation Halliburton and its former subsidiary KBR, have received billions of dollars in federal contracts for logistics and reconstruction related to the oil industry and general infrastructure in Iraq.
The US in Libya
The United States benefits from Libya's oil through direct imports of crude oil, business operations of U.S. oil companies within the country, and broader interests in global energy market stability.
The U.S. is a direct importer of Libyan crude and refined petroleum. For example, in September 2025, the main U.S. imports from Libya were $113 million in crude petroleum and $17 million in refined petroleum. In 2023, U.S. imports of crude petroleum from Libya reached $1.57 billion.
American firms have historically dominated and continue to invest in Libya's oil and gas sectors. These companies repatriate profits, which benefit the U.S. balance of payments.
Disruptions to Libyan oil production can cause oil prices to rise globally. The US has a strong interest in a stable Libyan oil sector to ensure a consistent and predictable global energy supply, which helps reduce dependence on other, potentially less stable, regions.
Maintaining a presence and influence in Libya's oil sector is a key component of US foreign policy, particularly in the context of great power competition with countries like Russia and China that also seek to expand their influence in the region.
The US has a long history of foreign interventions resulting in long term energy resources and profits. Trump might have promised to end foreign wars the US was involved in, but he is counting on the actions taken in Venezuela not turning into a full-scale war with US military involvement.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.